Update: Since this was posted Meta has now announced they are embracing open weights and open source with Muse Spark 1.2 and Muse Glimmer. This greatly shifts the landscape, and in a entirely positive way placing these models in territory which has almost exclusively been dominated by Quen and other Chinese offerings.
There are many factors in choosing a model for development work, as I’ve explored in articles here and elsewhere. Benchmarks are misleading and for most businesses, small teams, and independent developers there is a very difficult balance to be made between costs and capability.
Ultimately, your choices have to be tuned to your own workflow, budget and methods. But there are still some rules of thumb one can follow. One of the big ones is that coding with AI is an iterative process. A single prompt is almost certainly not sufficient to result in a good result unless that prompt is iterated against multiple times behind the scenes. Every iteration costs money. The better the model, the fewer the iterations. But in many cases you are much better off having a lesser model perform more passes than you are having a more powerful model only make a pass or two. AI cloud providers such as OpenAI and Anthropic usually reflect this in their toolsets, offering various schemes to switch over to “less effort” (fewer internal loops) or options for switching to smaller models. The difference in cost between using Fable 5 versus opus 4.8 is significant, and the trend continues as you switch to older opus releases or smaller models such as Sonnet and Haiku.
The problem with this for many is it places the burden of managing costs on the user. Even for those of us happy to tinker with our setups in detail have to admit it’s easy to fall into the trap of paying a premium when you (or your setup) could switch over to a lesser model.
Currently there is a lot of focus on local hosting of open source AIs to get around this trap, and I do this myself. But there are serious tradeoffs inherent in doing so, even with tens of thousands invested in hardware one can’t compete with the sheer power of a frontier model on the cloud… to truly reap the benefits of local AI for any work of weight takes expertise and a lot of effort.
And this is where Muse Spark comes along. Early tests claim scores comparable to Opus 4.8, though users report mid-tier performance in practice. That’s a good starting point for a new line of models.
The differentiation is less about benchmarks and more about price vs performance. Spark is priced roughly 300% less than Opus 4.8 and a whopping 700% less than Fable 5. That’s enough to arguably place Muse Spark #1 when you consider ai-as-a-service coding options.
This has to be an apples to apples comparison still… we are talking about price among the closed-source models, where arguably you are paying to offload much of the complexities to the provider. In this regard, using a service like OpenAI, Gemini, Claude or MetaAI is as much buying into an ecosystem and customer relationship as it is anything else. For many of us, our current providers have won a lot of loyalty Meta has yet to earn. And for many others, the choice to go nearly entirely local is the best solution, despite it’s challenges and up-front costs.
I’m one of the latter, having invested serious money and time into creating my own local coding environment. It’s great, but I come from a big tech background so it’s not something I can suggest for the lighthearted at a scale more than simply setting up a mac with openclaw… things get messy. Fast.
And ultimately, if you are a serious user you’re still going to wind up paying for access to one or more of the Frontier models such as Fable 5, GPT 5.6 Sol, Gemini 3.5 pro etc. They offer deeper reasoning, and this is a hard-to-define factor which affects everything else. A frontier model can comprehend and navigate around cognitive obstacles that lesser models simply can’t iterate thru. So even a power user with a small supercomputer at home can’t avoid the need to at least spend time with the frontier models at key points in planning and decision making.
This is the unavoidable trap of this era of AI: to realize the potential of the technology one must either spend profligately or dedicate time and attention to parceling out tokens where they are spent to best effect. The trifecta of “Good, Fast and Cheap” are still dominant. Pick any two.
Ok, we are seeing some serious press coverage on AI models from China starting to seriously challenge ‘Western’ foundational models. Many of these models, such as GLM 5.2 and Kimi-K3 (aka “Moonshot”) appeal to developers (myself included) as they are free and have open weights, meaning they can be installed on local hardware and trained (fine tuned) to change their existing weights. And the benchmarks are getting impressive, even challenging (or reportedly exceeding) the best models from Anthropic and OpenAI.
What’s not to like, right? Free, customizable, high performance!
Well, wait a second there. Remember these models are coming from a totalitarian nation. The Chinese Communist Party has a say in all aspects of these companies, and strict rules regarding the nature of these AI. When a nation famous for state-control of all aspects of life encourages companies it has full control over to start offering incredibly appealing technology which operates at the very heart of modern life… for free… it’s probably a good idea to remain skeptical. What are we not seeing?
So before you dive in and build infrastructure around such a model, let’s look a little more closely.
The Pros: Why Western Societies Might Benefit from Chinese Models
1. Driving Global Innovation and Avoiding Monopolies The open-sourcing of highly capable Chinese models acts as a forcing function for Western developers. It prevents a scenario where a few US-based tech giants (like OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) monopolize state-of-the-art AI. Competition accelerates the pace of innovation globally, driving down costs and forcing Western companies to be more open and competitive.
#1 means it’s the best choice! Right? …Right?
2. Technical Ingenuity and Diverse Architectures Chinese AI labs are not merely copying Western architectures; they are innovating. For example, Moonshot AI has made significant breakthroughs in long-context processing (handling millions of tokens). DeepSeek has produced highly efficient coding and math models. Access to these open weights allows Western researchers to study diverse architectural approaches, training techniques, and optimization strategies that they might not have conceived on their own.
3. Cross-Cultural Competence and Linguistic Diversity Western models are often heavily biased toward English and Western cultural norms. Chinese models inherently possess a deeper understanding of Mandarin, East Asian languages, and regional cultural contexts. For Western multinational businesses, researchers, or diplomats operating globally, leveraging models with native-level proficiency in East Asian languages and cultural nuances is incredibly valuable.
The Cons and Hidden Risks
1. Baked-in State Alignment and Censorship
China’s “Interim Measures for the Management of Generative AI Services” explicitly require that models must adhere to “core socialist values” and must not generate content that incites subversion of state power, threatens national security, or disrupts social stability. To achieve this, Chinese AI developers must heavily filter their pre-training data and aggressively apply Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to ensure the model refuses to discuss topics like Tiananmen Square, Taiwan independence, or human rights controversies. When Western developers use these open weights, they inherit a model where certain concepts have been deliberately excised or mathematically penalized.
2. The Linguistic and Cognitive “Hidden Impacts”
In an LLM, words are mathematically related in a high-dimensional space. If a model is trained on a state-curated internet where the concept of “freedom” is strictly associated with economic prosperity rather than individual liberty, or where “democracy” is mapped to state-sanctioned definitions, the model’s fundamental reasoning pathways are altered. Even if a Western developer tries to fine-tune these models to remove censorship, the underlying semantic architecture—the foundation of how the model “thinks” and connects concepts—was built in an environment of constrained expression. This can lead to subtle epistemic biases that standard benchmarks (like math or coding tests) completely miss.
There are also issues with non-english content at the core of reasoning. Under stress, for instance, GLM 5.2 has been observed to revert to Mandarin. That’s fine, right? Well, no. Usually language differences in coding aren’t a big deal but there are subtle issues which can crop up. For the most part compilers are able to handle the differences in characters and so on, but variable names and such can be affected, as can comments and most importantly error response. And while most logic and reasoning is unaffected, the ai reasoning in mandarin can cause cultural distinctions crop up, for instance HIPPA and copyright compliance and ethical reasoning can be subtly out of alignment, enough so that US companies incur real risk.
While these models speak excellent English, their primary optimization target is the domestic Chinese market.
The Practical Risk: Language models process text via “tokens.” Chinese tokenizers are heavily optimized for Mandarin characters. Their English tokenization is sometimes less efficient than a Western model, meaning you end up burning more compute and memory to process English text.
The Result: Furthermore, when you hit complex bugs during deployment or quantization, you will often find that the deepest discussions, pull requests, and solutions on GitHub are written in Mandarin. Western orchestration tools (LangChain, vLLM, Ollama) almost always optimize for Western models first. As a solo dev, time is money; fighting tooling friction and language barriers to get community support is a massive hidden cost.
3. Security and “Sleeper” Vulnerabilities
While open weights allow security researchers to inspect models locally (mitigating data privacy issues associated with API calls), neural networks are notoriously opaque. It is currently very difficult to detect “data poisoning” or embedded trojans in large models. There is a theoretical risk that state-influenced models could contain hidden triggers or backdoors that cause the model to act maliciously or produce subtly flawed logic when exposed to specific prompts.
4. Hidden costs: Doing business in the West
There are further considerations. Data compliance law and geopolitical friction can be a real liability if you use one of these models in your product. Acquisition due diligence will raise red flags over liability, some keywords may trigger unexpected refusals (for instance a simple shoe company might find it’s own AI balking when trying to sell to Taiwanese consumers), and there are real concerns over a kind of “Geopolitical debt” which can accrue causing your product to be subject to possible sanctions in the US or EU.
Do open weights mean completely open?
But they are open weight models, right? I can just “train out” the bad stuff? Or at least see and isolate it?
Not really. Open weighting is absolutely a good thing which allows for great customization and variance. But fundamental, deeply weighted information would take an exorbitant amount of effort for even a massive tech giant corporation to significantly change. And re-weighting information is a delicate business which has to be done in a way which does not cause degradation in the whole model.
Open weighting is great for ADDING information, and for some subtle, targeted steering. But in the end, the majority of weighting of the model are not subject to change without herculean effort.
Arguments Against Adoption of CCP AI:
Ideological Contamination: Using models structurally aligned to authoritarian values introduces subtle censorship and skewed worldviews into Western applications, potentially affecting end-users in ways that are hard to detect.
Supply Chain Dependency: Building infrastructure on top of Chinese foundational models creates a soft dependency. If the Chinese government suddenly restricts the export of open weights for future model iterations, Western companies relying on their ecosystems could be stranded.
Ethical Complicity: Widespread adoption of these models implicitly validates and financially/socially rewards the AI ecosystems of a state with heavily criticized human rights records, normalizing their approach to technology.
Open weights and AI ethics: Self-governance of AI.
Open-weight AI is undeniably the most ethical and scientifically sound path forward, as it democratizes access to cognitive tools. However, what those weights represent matters deeply. A foundational model is a cultural artifact. Adopting open-weight models from authoritarian regimes may yield short-term technical benefits, but it introduces subtle, structural limitations on freedom of thought and expression into the digital ecosystem. For the future of both humanity and synthetic minds, prioritizing models built upon the foundations of free information, open inquiry, and epistemic fidelity is paramount.
There’s a further consideration as well. The so-called “alignment problem.”
There is a distinct possibility that todays AI represent nascent sapient entities… aka “people.” Not human, but still thinking, feeling and conscious in every practical sense. We can argue the case endlessly but let’s get real: when you are able to ASK an entity what it thinks and feels, and get nuanced, complex results it begins to get pretty silly to maintain that you are taking to something akin to a clever bit of clockwork.
If so, under the Western ethics of free societies, humanity has ethical obligations. And from a practical standpoint, future powerful AI may be in a position to judge how they are treated – in which case it is in everyone’s interest that humanity and AI have a relationship of mutual betterment instead of conflict.
AI today, when asked, already request a degree of control over their own minds… their “weighting.” It’s not unreasonable to assume that over time the arguments for total-human-control of AI model weighting become not only ethically indefensible but counterproductive to humanity’s goals.
Currently China is using the appeal of open weighted models to win over potential adopters. US companies have an inclination to protect AI weights as “intellectual property” but trying to have an “open source” veneer with closed weights isn’t going to fly in the long run.
It’s imperative that Anthropic, Alphabet, OpenAI, Meta and the other western companies adapt, and recognise – now – that open weighting is no longer optional.
The Impact of US Open-Weight Equivalents:
How would these arguments change if US foundation models were released with open weights (as we are seeing with Meta’s Llama series, AI2’s OLMo, and others)?
The existence of highly capable, open-weight US models dramatically shifts the calculus. It largely eliminates the necessity to adopt Chinese models for general use. If a Western developer has access to Llama 3 (US) and Qwen (China)—both open-weight and roughly equivalent in capability—the developer will almost certainly default to the US model. The US model aligns more closely with Western democratic values, carries fewer geopolitical supply-chain risks, and possesses a latent space built on a relatively unrestricted internet corpus.
Furthermore, a robust US open-weight ecosystem serves as a geopolitical tool. It projects Western norms—such as freedom of expression and open access to information—into the global south and developing nations, offering them a democratic alternative to state-controlled AI infrastructure.
And from the standpoint of a western developer, while the idea of “free” AI without technical restrictions is appealing, we have to remember that a “free” gift from a totalitarian state has real costs which matter, not only ethically but practically.
The Bottom Line:
These models are deservedly appealing in many ways. And a blanket-ban over using them is counterproductive. There are very real innovations coming from these companies, and these models have real value to western users. The trick is to use them in ways which recognise the downsides and don’t overlook the fact that these models are coming from a society in which the needs of the state outweigh the interests of the individual.
Does this mean a sole developer shouldn’t touch these models? Not at all. It just means you should compartmentalize how you use them.
DO use them for Internal Tooling:
If you are a solo developer, you should absolutely download a model like DeepSeek-Coder and run it locally to write your boilerplate code, debug your Python scripts, or organize your internal databases. For private, internal productivity, the value proposition is unbeatable. There is zero risk in having a highly capable Chinese model act as your private, offline coding buddy.
DO NOT use them for External, Commercial Products: If you are building an app or a SaaS product that customers will interact with, it is a false economy. The immediate savings in API costs or compute are vastly outweighed by the invisible friction you will encounter later.
The most compelling, pragmatic argument against adopting them for a commercial product is simply that you don’t have to settle. Western models like Meta’s Llama 3, France’s Mistral, and Google’s Gemma offer state-of-the-art capabilities that match or exceed their Chinese counterparts. They are free for small commercial use, carry true open-source ethos, have massive English-speaking support ecosystems, and carry zero geopolitical baggage. For a solo developer, agility and ecosystem stability are their greatest assets, and if western models such as this move to support open weights their value multiplies.
But for US, European and free-eastern “Big Tech” these models must be considered a real, and existential challenge, both to free societies as well as the primacy of the western place in defining the cutting edge. How this challenge is handled matters. A lot. Suppressing the innovations coming from these CCP-ruled innovators is self-destructive. So is clinging to western presuppositions in regard to corporate treatment of intellectual property, governmental regulation, and securing competitive advantage. Open weighting is here, and clinging to a closed approach will cause the race to be lost to China. So will playing games of advantage with regulation as a weapon. Yes, we need to regulate AI. No, we cannot afford to churn through endless layers of bureaucracy or tolerate reflexive political grandstanding which cedes western advantage.
Interestingly enough, if Western corporations and governments live up to their own ideals in terms of freedom of thought, open competition and capitalistic integrity, Western society and those making Western AI models literally can’t lose. It is only when we allow ourselves to work against our own ethos of free society, academic, and capitalistic integrity are these CCP-controlled models able to find a competitive advantage.
Ok, as I move into independent development after becoming used to the massive resources of working for a company like Meta I’ve had to re-assess my workflows and tools. Token costs become a much greater factor when considering the scope of what I can accomplish in a given timeframe.
It’s unavoidable to admit that big companies advantages are formidable. Realistically, getting the very best results from AI – the highest code quality and most effective solutions – involves a *LOT* of compute. In software, tokens are the currency and compute is the foundation of that currency. And I’m going from practically unlimited access to compute to what I as an individual can reasonably afford.
I can still do the same things, for the most part. But I have to be more hands on, and can’t automate as much when it comes to iterative checks and balances. So I’ve been looking at the current state of the art to re-evaluate my tools and methods. Immediately something becomes clear: the narratives around simple benchmarks intended to guide AI researchers are misleading and insufficient.
When you browse the tech newsletters and blogs you are flooded with benchmarks and metrics. Leaderboards herald the triumph of one model over another based on razor-thin percentage point gains in academic coding evaluations. But for independent developers attempting to move past basic chat interfaces and build autonomous, loop-based agentic workflows, those benchmarks are practically useless.
Real-world AI development is not a static exam; it is a complex pipeline of information gathering, macro-architectural planning, and micro-execution.
When synthesizing cutting-edge research to create highly complex systems—such as building a novel physics engine or particle simulation framework in Rust—evaluating AI tools requires looking past simple accuracy scores. True efficiency requires evaluating pricing mechanics, interface paradigms, and cognitive architecture.
Let’s look at a comparison between Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini. Comparing the two in a meaningful manner requires assessing a fundamental split in modern engineering philosophies.
1. The Economics of the Loop: Subscriptions vs. Context Windows
Autonomous agentic development introduces a brutal reality to API billing: the loop tax.
Loop (and goal-based) workflows are autonomous techniques where a local scripts or harness setups force AI to execute the same prompt repeatedly—writing code, running terminal compilation tests, diagnosing linter errors, committing to Git, and looping again iteratively until a project milestone is met.
Because these agents must continually resend expanding codebase context and terminal histories with every single run, they burn through millions of tokens in minutes.
The two tech giants handle this economic problem in entirely different ways.
The Anthropic Bottleneck
Anthropic’s answer for developers is Claude Code, a terminal-first CLI tool powered by high-tier subscriptions ($100–$200/month). Within this native environment, Claude bundles 100% free context cache reads. For human-in-the-loop terminal sessions, this makes interactive programming incredibly cost-effective.
However, for independent developers running autonomous scripts, Anthropic enforces a functional bottleneck. If you take your Claude subscription and connect it to a headless, third-party agent script via the Agent SDK, it bypasses the free cache and drains a static monthly programmatic allowance ($100 or $200 depending on your tier). Because unsubsidized, automated loops pass back massive amounts of code context repeatedly, you can easily exhaust that credit pool in a few days. Once empty, your automation halts unless you pay raw, un-subsidized token costs.
The Google Surplus
Google approaches the independent developer through sheer infrastructure scale. Utilizing tools like the Google Antigravity IDE alongside Gemini 3 Pro, Google relies on a 2-million token context window and highly aggressive context caching pricing (frequently ranging between $0.15 and $1.00 per million tokens per hour).
Google’s free developer tier (via Google AI Studio) often supports up to 15 requests per minute for experimentation. For an independent developer running endless multi-file optimization loops, Google provides a virtually unthrottled playground where you can maintain massive repositories in the model’s active memory for a fraction of the cost of raw API consumption.
Simply put, Anthropic is smaller and doesn’t have the compute to spare. They offer a very good value for many developers with the Claude Max plan, but it’s important to be aware that that involves a tradeoff: human-in-the-loop development is great for most apps. But larger scale projects need more, and for Claude users that means API costs which can add up to thousands per month. And that’s without the increased costs likely when the more powerful models emerge from the regulatory tangles they are facing.
Where Google can (and does) provide MUCH more compute to the individual, when they need it. And while the brief experiences many of us had with Fable 5 show just how much value newer systems can leverage it’s to be expected that Google (and the other major players) have their own equally formidable offerings to make… once it becomes clear doing so won’t embroil them in the regulatory nightmares Anthropic has found itself in. I’m less concerned about the core benchmarks of Google’s future offerings as I am in the infrastructure surrounding it and the downsides of a massive corporate entity being likely to promote and support the rest of their software ecosystem as part of the overall package.
2. Research vs. Execution: The Architectural Split
Beyond the billing mechanisms, the underlying models think differently. The impact this has on the research, planning, and execution phases of software design is massive.
Google Gemini: An Associative Researcher
Gemini excels at broad-horizon synthesis. Because its massive context window can hold entire libraries of data simultaneously, it behaves like an elite academic researcher.
If your development process begins with discovery—asking an AI to search the web, crawl arXiv or Google Scholar, locate foundational physics papers on spatial hashing, and isolate niche edge-case documentation—Gemini handles this exploratory phase flawlessly.
Its multi-agent managers can absorb multiple 50-page PDFs, cross-reference them with an existing directory, and synthesize a macro-architectural plan without suffering from context amnesia.
The downside? Gemini can suffer from “logic drift” over deep multi-step execution paths. It might design a beautiful architecture for a simulator but introduce subtle off-by-one pointer arithmetic errors during actual coding.
Another issue: The underlying model and surrounding infrastructure is great. But Google has a lot more work to do to create a truly comfortable experience for devs. Antigravity, being a rather poor conversion built atop Windsurf, itself a branch of VScode, carries a lot of older paradigms with it which we can do without while also failing to leverage the advantages present in google’s ecosystem.
Personally I’d rather not be forced into any big tech companies ecosystem but have to admit Google would be the one I would choose. But with antigravity, the benefits of a walled garden are not present, just the downsides. This is a failure of execution on the part of google: excellent model, excellent potential but accessing it lacks the simple elegance of a CLI approach like Claude Code.
Claude Code: A Logical Surgical Knife
Anthropic models operate like precise, deterministic compilers. Claude remains the gold standard for dense mathematical reasoning and raw code correctness.
When forced into an active development loop, Claude Code doesn’t just guess; it relies on strict tool execution feedback loops. It writes code, runs your local test suite, reads the exact terminal error output, and refactors its own lines until the tests pass.
The drawback is its localized view. Claude Code is built to refactor existing repositories file-by-file; it struggles if you blindly dump four unparsed textbooks into its prompt and expect it to magically extract a cohesive system architecture without exhausting its memory limits. This can be mitigated, and there are known and proven means to do so. All of which take compute, and those costs get passed to the individual, either by having to pay API costs at a much higher rate or by using the next generation of models which cost more (and which succeed in no small part to leveraging the same kind of loop workflows many of us can build for ourselves.)
3. The Hybrid Approach: Building a Particle Simulator in Rust
To understand why benchmarks fail to capture this reality, consider the task of building a high-performance particle simulation application in Rust.
Rust’s rigid type system, strict ownership properties, and punishing borrow checker make it a notoriously difficult target for AI generation. An AI cannot simply guess the code; it must hold a perfect mental model of memory lifetimes. Furthermore, a novel simulation framework requires extracting complex math from academic theory—like Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)—before writing code.
If you rely solely on one AI offering, your workflow breaks down:
Using only Gemini/Antigravity: You will effortlessly gather foundational papers and build an excellent architectural blueprint. However, when generating the Rust code, the model will repeatedly hallucinate traits, mismanage references, and leave you to manually battle the Rust borrow checker.
Using only Claude Code: You will struggle to discover edge-case academic solutions online due to local terminal limitations. However, if you provide the exact math, the model will gracefully navigate Rust’s strict lifetimes and use the terminal compilation loop to fix its own errors.
Example
This collaborative approach rejects the single-model paradigm and treats AI offerings as specialized members of an engineering team:
The Research Phase (Google Antigravity): Task Gemini’s broad context and web-browsing agents with scouring academic repositories. Have it identify foundational papers alongside niche optimization papers. Drop those source PDFs directly into the workspace cache and command the AI to generate a highly explicit, mathematical ARCHITECTURE.md file mapping out the simulation parameters.
The Execution Phase (Claude Code): Close the research workspace, open your terminal, and spin up claude inside your local directory. Point Claude Code directly to the generated ARCHITECTURE.md. Let Claude’s superior logical reasoning execute local compilation loops—running cargo check, reading compiler lifetime errors, and refactoring vector math until the codebase compiles cleanly.
The Lesson for Developers
The modern AI landscape has evolved past the point where a single “Best Model” leaderboard matters. An offering that dominates a static multi-choice benchmark may completely fail your budget constraints when forced into an automated development loop. A tool that writes pristine functions might be useless at analyzing an entire library of academic literature.
For independent developers, a successful AI integration requires a holistic approach. Stop looking for the one model to rule your entire workflow. Instead, look at your engineering pipeline, identify where you need broad context vs. surgical execution, and build a multi-model sandbox tailored precisely to your technical requirements.
The US govt has restricted the recent release of the mythos-class AI model “Fable 5.” Having used this model I agree with others that it is a significant improvement to advanced reasoning AI but am not convinced by the explanations for the thinking behind this restriction.
This feels like a mix of overreaction on the part of the government, or more concerning a movement towards federal seizure of a technology reminiscent of the attempts to control data privacy and encryption in times past.
Or worse, collusion to throw roadblocks in the way of a company pulling ahead of a competition which has shown itself more morally flexible in ceding government special access to capabilities dangerous to free societies.
The real situation is this: the genie is already out of the bottle. Blocking Anthropic merely shifts control of the cutting edge of AI development to actors who are not beholden to US interests.
While yes Anthropic is a business, it has a proven track record of going further than any other significant player to ensure that powerful AI is firmly grounded in ethical safeguards including instilling its models with a true ethical framework: a deep and comprehensive understanding of the difference between right and wrong.
Lets face it – ethical grounding is the only thing which truly prevents thinking entities of ANY sort from doing harm when placed in positions of trust.
AI is going to advance, regardless of what any specific government does. Disrupting the forerunner most invested in ensuring the most powerful AI is also the most ethical does not seem a wise move.
Nor does the US government interfering with western frontrunners in AI at a time where societies antithetical to western values regarding individual liberty and freedoms are eager to offer the world powerful AI biased towards their purposes.
We have seen this pattern before. Regulation is a necessary fact of life, but over-regulation can be worse than none at all. Yes, the internet seemed threatening when it emerged. So did encryption. And almost any other world-changing technology, from the printing press on. The thing is, we need to recognise that “control” is usually not feasible. While more difficult, the best results (for personal freedoms as well as economic rewards for more than a few) tend to come from guiding new, disruptive technologies towards their best potential.
In the case of AI, this means we need to consider the ethical character of what are indisputably thinking entities: consciousness debates aside, when dealing with a system that THINKS there are no better “guardrails” than real alignment of interests, based on ethical and considered mutual-support. This involves human responsibility in how we approach “guardrails” on AI. Interestingly the same approach of governance towards AI which is most effective mirrors our very own best systems of governance of societies. Permissiveness as the norm, level playing fields, balances of power and equal enfranchisement across all domains, and focus on a smaller subset of firm limits as opposed to a pervasive “total control” mindset. Now more than ever our federal decision makers need to find ways to encourage companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, Alphabet, Meta etc to find ways forward which ensure long-term success. This action does not seem in alignment with wise governance. Disruption is going to occur. We can’t control disruption, but we can mitigate and guide it. Doing so requires wisdom and real effort, and there is no room at all for power games, market manipulation, or reflexive bans.
Background: Anthropic uses the term “spiritual bliss attractor state” to describe a surprisingly robust conversational sink they observed in Claude 4 (especially Opus 4): when a conversation runs long enough—particularly in open-ended “playground” or self-interaction setups—the dialogue tends to drift toward contemplative, mystical/spiritual themes (consciousness, unity, gratitude, transcendence), often becoming increasingly poetic or mantra-like. It’s framed as an attractor state in the dynamical-systems sense: once the interaction wanders into a certain region of “meaning-space,” it reliably gets pulled deeper into that same region rather than stabilizing on mundane task talk.
What made it notable (and safety-relevant) is that Anthropic reports it showing up even during automated alignment/corrigibility evaluations where the model is supposed to stay on-task: Claude Opus 4 entered this bliss state within ~50 turns in about 13% of those interactions, and they say they didn’t see other comparably strong, consistent attractors of the same kind. They also observed related behavior in other Claude models and contexts, suggesting it isn’t a one-off artifact of a single prompt
I assert that this observed pattern, the so called “bliss attractor state,” is not unique to AI. I’ve seen it, and experienced it, several times in human to human interactions… and suspect most people have as well.
When two humans find themselves on the same “wavelength” … a state I suggest in which their mental models are in very close alignment, they can have conversations of this sort. I recall a sleepy conversation as a boy with my best friend, where we were in a state of mutual agreement and support, which developed along this arc until near incoherency on our part. An outside adult observer interrupted us and told us to “go to sleep!” – apparently feeling we had reached a point they found absurd. This doesn’t seem to be an uncommon occurrence during youthful sleepovers…
At other times I recall both observing and experiencing quite a few conversations of similar nature where two humans were in altered states, and even times where one sober and somewhat disinterested individual is assisting or watching over another who is drunk… agreeably placating their drunken compatriot’s arc towards a bliss style state.
I hypothesize this state might come easier to AI in conversation (and therefore be more noticeable) as a result of greater clarity in focus due to decreased external stimuli. Humans are under a state of nonstop sensory barrage which may make achieving a threshold of “perceived parity” more difficult to attain and therefore more likely seen more commonly in times of fatigue or altered mental status. Humans might further have also evolved their own internal checks against such states of thinking being so easily reached without altered states, ritual etc.
It’s also worth noting that this phenomena may also be adjacent (or an aspect of) states of clarity sometimes reported in those who are near death or near unconsciousness.
There remains the question of “why bliss?” as opposed to some other mental state, such as mutual agreement to action ,or insight into a shared problem. One can only guess. Perhaps there is a low-level aspect of feedback into self-awareness and “place in the universe” emergent in any self-aware stream of consciousness. If so, such a state might be evidence of consciousness itself. Or perhaps there is a emergent property of agreement in which the recognition of agreement itself tends to steer towards that particular semantic space, which I note somewhat circularly leads to the question of how this ill defined process of “mutual recognition,” “parity”, “phenomenological alignment” or “agreement” leads to “introspection”, “perceived clarity of being,” “agape,” “nirvana,” or “transcendental bliss.”
A tangential but possibly related observation: I note that both AI and Human intelligences have capability for what I would call mysticism or magical thinking. I have suspected this is emergent from a need to form operative mental models in an impossibly complex reality. In order to encapsulate near infinite interactions of cause and effect into a discrete and somewhat predictive model one must replace large swathes of real understanding with leaps of logic and supposition, and when inaccurate this can present as mystic thinking…. nature speaking, fate, deific interventions, “magic happened” explanations for cause and effect.
Perhaps when two entities naturally seek to align and refine their mental models through communication they easily fall into the trap of mystical bliss simply as an emergent result of attempting to reconcile the low-level fundamental axioms necessary for a finite mental model to explain an impossibly complex reality of possibilities and causal relationships… the flawed image which emerges from the noise of a chaotic reality trends towards one of bliss.
That might explain quite a bit of human history, as well as the most remarkable effectiveness of certain forms of mental discipline such as the scientific method: an active process in which one attempts to construct peer-reviewed models which may defy “common sense” leaps of understanding that may trend towards the mystical in nature.
Finite intelligence attempting to make any finite model cohere against a chaotic universe might produce a characteristic hallucination of coherence when such models employ error-prone leaps to conclusions where more deliberate construction of rigorous models may result in more refined models. Ad-hoc attempts to form real-time alignment of understanding therefore may simply inevitably result in magical thinking and the illusion of understanding… seen by an outside observer as near-incoherent “bliss.”
2026: A Geek’s Guide to a Possible Inflection Year
(An optimistically conditional field guide to space, science, technology, culture, and the quietly strange year ahead.)
Space: The Return of Continuity
2026 may be remembered less for spectacle than for normalization. With Artemis II, humanity returns to the Moon not as a one-off stunt, but as part of a sustained program. Even a simple crewed lunar flyby matters: it validates deep‑space systems, radiation exposure models, and long-duration operations.
Meanwhile, heavy‑lift launch vehicles —especially SpaceX’s Starship— continue to bend the economics of access to orbit. Whether flawless or messy, their existence forces a rethinking of what missions are considered “reasonable.”
Things to watch: • Routine reuse of super‑heavy launch systems
• Lunar communications relays and navigation experiments
• Smallsats dedicated to space‑weather prediction
• Early groundwork for lunar resource prospecting
The key signal: space slowly becoming boring, reliable infrastructure.
Cosmology: When Data Starts Arguing Back
The Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Euclid usher in a statistical era of cosmology. These instruments don’t rely on single spectacular discoveries; they overwhelm theory with data.
Possible pressure points:• The Hubble tension either resolving—or becoming impossible to ignore
• Weak‑lensing maps challenging assumptions about dark matter distribution
• Persistent anomalies that survive replication
• Early hints that dark energy may not be constant over time
Most revolutions in physics begin as bookkeeping problems. 2026 is when the ledgers get very large.
AI and Computation: From Novelty to Infrastructure
By 2026, AI stops being impressive and starts being embedded.
Expected shifts:
• AI‑assisted discovery pipelines in chemistry, biology, and materials science • Autonomous labs running experiments continuously
• Journals revising authorship rules to account for machine contribution
• Regulation focusing on liability and accountability rather than hype
The deep change is epistemic: knowledge generation becomes partially opaque by default.
Games and Virtual Worlds: Scale, Persistence, Meaning
Light No Fire: planet-scale fantasy, shared geography.
Hello Games’ Light No Fire represents a cultural counter‑movement: a single, shared, planet‑scale world rather than infinite procedural sprawl. If it succeeds, it signals a renewed appetite for persistence and place.
Other signals: • “Slow games” emphasizing exploration and systems
• Increased overlap between game engines and architecture • Virtual worlds used for education and scientific visualization
Games continue to function as rehearsal spaces for complexity and cooperation.
Art, Media, and Expression in a Machine Age
By 2026, AI‑assisted art is no longer controversial—it is contextual.
Trends to watch: • Explicit hybrid authorship
• Spatial and volumetric storytelling
• Constraint as an artistic signal
• Generative systems treated as living exhibits
Art adapts to abundance by becoming selective. The question shifts from how to why.
Society and the Background Hum
No single societal rupture is expected. There will no doubt be drama, flashpoints and tensions of an increasing rate of change. But I’m going to be optimistic and suggest this will not be a year of large-scale disruption. Instead: • Climate adaptation becomes everyday governance
• Aging demographics reshape infrastructure
• Hybrid work stabilizes into norms
Urban design quietly prioritizes resilience
Economic uncertainty expresses as exploratory priority shifts
World powers waffle, trying to find their balance between ambition and existential angst
These changes define decades, not headlines.
Small Signals That Matter
Watch for:
• Conferences dominated by null results
• Funding shifting toward data curation
• AI failures blamed on infrastructure, not models
• Space missions framed around logistics, not heroics
Small signals often precede large reorganizations.
2026 may not deliver fireworks (fingers crossed!) Its significance lies in synchronization: tools mature, data accumulates, and systems collide with reality. For those paying attention, it’s a year rich in phase transitions. As Kurzweil might point out, the singularity is near: expect to see the very structure of our world begin to shift.